Advanced Projects, Inc.

The Thinking Process

The Thinking Process leads us from undesired effects, through the Core Problem, to successful implementation. The Evaporating Cloud is the transition to what to change to.

The tools are as follows:

Current Reality Tree (CRT): The CRT describes the system as it is today. The CRT process starts with the observed Undesired Effects (UDEs), and builds, with strict logical rules, a model of the system in the 'IF THEN' format. This model is carefully scrutinized by people with intuition about the system and with logical construction to ensure its validity. The CRT is then evaluated to discover the Core Problem.

Scrutiny of the CRT is essential to a successful result. You must assure that all of the assertions made about reality in the CRT exist in fact, and that the posed causal relations are what leads to observed reality. Development and scrutiny of a tree is often difficult for people enmeshed in a problem or system, as they frequently find it difficult to take an objective view of reality. It is beneficial to have a number of people with different perspectives participate to develop and scrutinize CRTs.

It is usually valuable to ensure that you consider the causal effect of Policies, Behaviors, and Measures in the system you are describing with the CRT. It is often valuable to ensure that you think about the rewards that cause consequences and reinforce or extinguish behavior. It is also important to specifically consider other feedback mechanisms that might cause the system to be stable at its present performance, as these may be perceived as resistance to change once you move to implementing a new Future Reality.

Cloud: The Cloud (sometimes called the Conflict Resolution Diagram) is fixed format necessity tree constructed to determine how to replace the Core Problem with a positive effect that is its opposite. The Cloud has many other uses as a stand alone tool, but in the Thinking Process it is used to determine the initial Injection (Effect) needed to create a future system that produces the desired effects. In the original approach to the Thinking Process, the Cloud was created by starting with the Core Problem, and defining an effect that is its opposite. The CRT is used to establish why the positive statement of the Core Problem does not exist in reality. A revised approach to the CRT starts with three Evaporating Clouds for three of the UDEs, and synthesizes a Core Conflict cloud from the three UDE clouds..

Future Reality Tree (FRT): The FRT is a system model of the 'Should be' system, including the Injection (effects) necessary to create and sustain the future state. FRT construction starts with the Injection from the Cloud, and uses the logic and UDEs from the CRT to develop the future system. As part of FRT construction, the UDEs are turned into Desired Effects.

Negative Branches: As part of finalizing the FRT, the potential negative undesired effects (or Unintended Consequences) of the suggested injections are evaluated. Usually, every planned improvement injection has some potential negative outcomes. Additional injections are added to the FRT to 'trim' these negative branches. Negative branches also are used as stand alone tools to evaluate potential undesirable effects of any planned action.

Prerequisite Tree (PRT): The prerequisite tree is a time phased necessity tree of the effects which must be caused for the FRT to result. Each Injection from the FRT is assessed to determine the obstacles which must be overcome for the Injection to exist. Intermediate objectives are defined to overcome the obstacles, and logically linked in a time sequence with the Injections. The PRT has stand alone utility as a tool to plan the achievement of ambitious goals. There is great power in getting a team to identify all of the obstacles they foresee at the beginning of a project, and creating a plan based on overcoming all of these obstacles.

Transition Tree (TRT): The TRT is the time phased action plan to achieve the effects on the PRT. The TRT is a unique plan, in that it ties the actions to the logic for doing them, and is used to measure progress in terms of the EFFECTS produced, not the performance of the action. The TRT has broad application for achieving any effect you wish. (For example, TRTs are used to get buy-in to the Thinking Process results, and Avraham Goldratt Institute makes extensive use of TRTs for training.),

Summary

The Thinking Process is a system improvement process. The individual Thinking Process tools are amenable to individual application for specific purposes. For example, you can use the Prerequisite Tree and Transition Tree to plan achieving any objective. You can use the Cloud for a wide range of problems, ranging from individual internal decision making to resolution of international issues.

The Thinking Process puts extensive emphasis on the portions of the process focusing on 'How to cause the change?' Implementation is usually the constraint on changes that require paradigm shifts, as most improvements do. The implementation emphasis is reflected in the specific tools, including the Prerequisite Tree and the Transition Tree, and also in the communication processes and buy-in processes. All of the processes have been developed, tested, and improved.

The Thinking Process undergoes rapid continuous improvement. Substantial improvements have been made to the training process. Recent improvements include the development of enhanced course material and improvements in the elements of the process, such as the Transition Tree. Many of these changes have come from students and organizations that are applying the process.