Advanced Projects, Inc.

Estimating a Project Task

There are many ways to estimate a project task, including using prior experience, using published databases (e.g., National Construction Estimator) and using parametric estimating tools. An important question for creating a Critical Chain plan is: "What is the uncertainty associated with such an estimate?" In order to gain a practical feel for this, we have groups prepare an estimate for a task that is well within the individual technical expertise, and where they have experience with performing similar tasks many times. You may wish to make your own estimates as we go along, to see how well you fit the results we have obtained from many groups.

The task is to go to your local stationary store and purchase a four inch thick, 8 1/2 x 11 inch, three ring binder, and bring it back to your current location. It should be white, and have clear plastic on the back and front to slide in a cover. It should also have pockets on the inside. Please make the following estimates one at a time, without looking at the next question first. (In class, we only show one question at a time.) Please imagine you are with a group of twenty other people at your place of work or a nearby hotel when you are asked these questions.

1. How long would you estimate this task to take? Please make this and all following estimates in minutes.

2. Please give a second estimate that you feel is reasonable, but that you would have confidence in: a low-risk estimate.
Assume: a) You have a car immediately available, and b) I will give you a map to several alternative suppliers within five miles

3. You will have no problems getting there; traffic is normal, the place you go has the binder, the check-out line is short, you don’t make any wrong turns, etc.
What is your estimate? (“Average” estimate)

4. I will give $100 to the person who puts it in my hand first.
Now how long do you estimate?

5.I will give $100 to the person who first puts it in my hand-
But, ONLY if you deliver it in less time than you estimate.
What is your estimate now?

6.I will give $100 to the person who: a) Wins the bid, by having the shortest time estimate, AND
b) Delivers within the estimated time.

YOU must agree to pay me a penalty of $50 if you win the bid, and are late.
What time do you bid?

Please write down your answers.

Now, before we review the results, please answer two questions:

1. Would you agree that this task is easier to estimate than most of your project tasks?

2. Would you agree that most people can estimate the time to do this task about as accurately (or more accurately) than they can estimate typical project tasks?

VIEW RESULTS